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2034 Pacific hurricane season (GaryKJR)
The 2034 Pacific hurricane season '''was the first Pacific hurricane season in which no tropical cyclone made landfall at or above tropical storm intensity since 2004. In total, the season produced 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The season officially began on May 15 in the East Pacific, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they both ended on November 30. However, tropical or subtropical cyclones can form at any time of the year. The first storm of the season, Agatha, formed on July 4, while the final storm of the season, Lester, dissipated on November 9. One storm, Keoni, developed in the Central Pacific during the season. In terms of activity, the season was below-average. The main reason for this relative lack of activity was the onset of a "cold" phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO). This reduced the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis within the East Pacific and Central Pacific during the season. As well as this, a weak La Niña, which enhances activity in the North Atlantic Ocean but reduces activity in the East Pacific, was present during much of the first half of the season. Impact throughout the season was relatively minimal. In early July, thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Agatha brought heavy rain to southwestern Mexico, causing $10 million in damage and two deaths. Later that month, the outer rainbands of Hurricane Celia brought moderate rain to parts of southern Mexico. Both of these storms damaged buildings on Socorro Island as well. In late August, Hurricane Georgette, the strongest storm of the season, brought heavy rain and strong winds to Socorro Island, leading to the death of three people. In mid-September, Hurricane Keoni passed through the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, causing minor beach erosion. Tropical Storm Kay was the only tropical cyclone that made landfall during the season; it caused $20 million in damage and five deaths. In total, the tropical cyclones that formed during the season caused $48 million in damage and 11 fatalities. Seasonal forecasts Season summary ImageSize = width:800 height:205 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/07/2019 till:01/12/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/07/2019 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:04/07/2019 till:10/07/2019 color:C2 text:"Agatha (C2)" from:13/07/2019 till:16/07/2019 color:TS text:"Blas (TS)" from:23/07/2019 till:29/07/2019 color:C1 text:"Celia (C1)" from:26/07/2019 till:02/08/2019 color:TS text:"Darby (TS)" from:04/08/2019 till:07/08/2019 color:C1 text:"Estelle (C1)" from:19/08/2019 till:26/08/2019 color:C2 text:"Frank (C2)" from:20/08/2019 till:29/08/2019 color:C3 text:"Georgette (C3)" from:26/08/2019 till:29/08/2019 color:TS text:"Howard (TS)" barset:break from:09/09/2019 till:20/09/2019 color:C2 text:"Ivette (C2)" from:15/09/2019 till:19/09/2019 color:C1 text:"Javier (C1)" from:18/09/2019 till:22/09/2019 color:C1 text:"Keoni (C1)" from:14/10/2019 till:19/10/2019 color:TS text:"Kay (TS)" from:05/11/2019 till:09/11/2019 color:TS text:"Lester (TS)" barset:break bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/07/2019 till:01/08/2019 text:July from:01/08/2019 till:01/09/2019 text:August from:01/09/2019 till:01/10/2019 text:September from:01/10/2019 till:01/11/2019 text:October from:01/11/2019 till:01/12/2019 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson scale)" Storms '''Hurricane Agatha On June 20, a tropical wave, accompanied by a poorly-defined area of low pressure, exited the west coast of Africa. Three days later, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to monitor the wave for potential development into a tropical cyclone. As a result of unfavorable upper-level winds in the southern North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, convection associated with the wave remained disorganized and largely transient until it entered the East Pacific, where conditions were much more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, on June 30. Thereafter, the disturbance began to gradually organize as its circulation became more well-defined. At 18:00 UTC on July 4, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E; their basis for the system's classification as a tropical depression was a scatterometer pass that confirmed that it possessed a closed low-level circulation. The next day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Agatha. Steered northwestward by a ridge over Mexico, Agatha gradually intensified as upper-level outflow became more well-established and a mid-level eye became apparent on microwave imagery. Late on July 6, Agatha was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. The model consensus for Agatha's peak intensity at this time was 125 mph (200 km/h); however, periodic dry air intrusion prevented this from occurring. Instead, Agatha peaked as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 967 mbar (28.56 inHg). At its peak, Agatha had a small inner core with a large spiral band that wrapped around much of the storm's periphery. Shortly after reaching peak intensity, Agatha began to weaken as it traveled over cooler waters. By 18:00 UTC on July 9, Agatha had weakened to a tropical storm. At 22:00 UTC the next day, Agatha degenerated into a remnant low. The remnants of Agatha traveled generally westward before fully dissipating early on July 14. Agatha damaged several structures on Socorro Island as it passed to the island's west. Several scientists researching the island's flora and fauna were evacuated in order to ensure their safety. In mainland Mexico, several mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) formed as a result of deep tropical moisture from Agatha. In some areas of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Jalisco, flooding rains from these complexes caused numerous landslides and extensive flash flooding. Tropical Storm Blas On July 9, an area of low pressure formed approximately 550 miles (885 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Initially, high vertical wind shear prevented the system from organizing significantly; by July 11, however, wind shear had lessened, which allowed deep convection to blossom over a developing low-level circulation. At 18:00 UTC on July 13, the disturbance was classified as a tropical depression after low-level cloud trajectories confirmed the existence of a closed low-level center. Twelve hours later, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Blas. Amid a marginally favorable environment for intensification, with moderate wind shear and sea surface temperatures of around 28°C (82°F), Blas intensified slowly, reaching its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 1005 mbar (29.68 inHg) at 00:00 UTC on July 15. Subsequently, Blas began to weaken as a result of dry air entrainment and an increase in vertical wind shear. Early on July 16, Blas degenerated into a remnant low. The remnants of Blas continued westward for several days before fully dissipating on July 19. Hurricane Celia Tropical Storm Darby Hurricane Estelle Hurricane Frank Hurricane Georgette Tropical Storm Howard Hurricane Ivette Hurricane Javier Hurricane Keoni Tropical Storm Kay Tropical Storm Lester Storm names Season effects Category:GaryKJR's Future Pacific hurricane seasons